Market speculations

Not investment advice, also not investment advice or anything like that

I think the Ds keep it together into the DNC. Obama’s speaking, the Clintons are speaking, poll and media astroturfing are dialed up to 11, the Dominion fraud infrastructure is all still in place, it’s full steam ahead.

They need to get fake finance on board. We have the PPI tomorrow morning, CPI on Wednesday, GDP, retail sales, we’re looking at a bad-news-is-good-news window. All equities care about is cover for a September rate cut. But at some point we get a false signal in the price data, where prices come in not because inflation is under control, but because credit is contracting hard and the real economy is in free-fall.

The Friday after DNC, the top of the rally channel is right about 5800 on the S&P; this is also the 1.236 fib extension from the recent BOJ 25 bps test panic.

The current short-term channel points right to this area, as long as it holds.

A rally has the Ds crowing about their expertise at political economy and your 401(k) endlessly at this convention. I bet they even drag out the old Reagan line, Are you better off than you were 4 years ago? I bet they do it, and why not? They’re geniuses.

They will lash themselves to this bubble market, right as it crests August 23.

Ds will own this market. Then the 2020 disclosures land and it will dive, at the slope we just experienced, first to the 3650 area. The Fed will indeed cut at September FOMC — giving the Ds zero ammunition vs Trump appointee Powell — bouncing us toward a final rollover near 4800.

There will be a lot of hard news, black swans are everywhere. The election will be cancelled or delayed. We’ll find out if the continuation of government rumblings are true.

S&P makes a final low near the 1000 level before Thanksgiving, a true collapse. This is the bottom of a very long-term channel running back into the 1970s.

For God’s sake this is not investment advice, just my personal musings.